Anthony Rowley
For the embattled leaders of Russia, China and the US, among others, these events are a distraction from having to deal with galloping inflation, soaring debt levels, rising interest rates and fiscal problems (not to mention Covid-19 and climate change).
The distraction will be temporary, however, because even if the Ukraine invasion stops short of becoming a full-out hot or cold war, the damage and mess accumulating in the global economy will engulf all players on the world stage.
It’s a sad reflection of the human condition and the lack of statesmanship that the world has shifted onto a war footing just when so many potential economic crises are looming. Unlike missiles raining from the sky, these threats will undermine economic foundations from below.
6 Mar, 2022
Western sanctions threaten to worsen the supply chain, inflation and
debt crises already threatening a vulnerable world economy. An obsession
with punishing Russia could end up punishing us all
Things have
been getting very hot on the war front with Russia’s invasion of
Ukraine, Vladimir Putin’s hints about the nuclear option, Germany’s
swing towards rearmament and even talk in Japan about nuclear weapons.
All this has so far masked the growing danger of crises on the global
economic front.
For the embattled leaders of Russia, China and the US, among others, these events are a distraction from having to deal with galloping inflation, soaring debt levels, rising interest rates and fiscal problems (not to mention Covid-19 and climate change).
The distraction will be temporary, however, because even if the Ukraine invasion stops short of becoming a full-out hot or cold war, the damage and mess accumulating in the global economy will engulf all players on the world stage.
It’s a sad reflection of the human condition and the lack of statesmanship that the world has shifted onto a war footing just when so many potential economic crises are looming. Unlike missiles raining from the sky, these threats will undermine economic foundations from below.
The biggest immediate threat is inflation and events are fuelling the fires.
Economic
sanctions are being hurled at Russia with impunity or even a kind of
malicious glee. They have become the weapon of choice rather than
boots-on-the-ground military intervention.
How international sanctions imposed since Ukraine invasion are hitting Russia
Sanctions further damage supply chains already disrupted by trade wars, and they fuel inflation, especially for oil and gas prices – just what the world does not need. Oil prices, as analyst Jeffrey Halley at foreign exchange specialist Oanda said, were “on fire over Russian supply shocks”.
As Halley noted, there is a “slowly dawning reality that the world outside of Russia will also endure economic pain” in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the barrage of economic sanctions it has provoked.
International Monetary Fund managing director Kristalina Georgieva and World Bank Group president David Malpass declared in a joint statement: “Commodity prices are being driven higher and risk further fuelling inflation, which hits the poor the hardest … The sanctions announced over the last few days will also have a significant economic impact.”
That risk is very high. Supply chain disruptions caused by Donald Trump’s trade wars against China set inflation in motion, and it has since gone from a canter to a gallop. Inflation feeds on itself by creating inflation expectations, then pressure on price rises and higher wages.
Oil prices are almost certain to continue rising, along with metal and food prices. The critical question is how central banks will react. The US Federal Reserve, for one, does not appear willing to hold off on raising interest rates – so look for further collateral damage.
How international sanctions imposed since Ukraine invasion are hitting Russia
Sanctions further damage supply chains already disrupted by trade wars, and they fuel inflation, especially for oil and gas prices – just what the world does not need. Oil prices, as analyst Jeffrey Halley at foreign exchange specialist Oanda said, were “on fire over Russian supply shocks”.
As Halley noted, there is a “slowly dawning reality that the world outside of Russia will also endure economic pain” in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the barrage of economic sanctions it has provoked.
International Monetary Fund managing director Kristalina Georgieva and World Bank Group president David Malpass declared in a joint statement: “Commodity prices are being driven higher and risk further fuelling inflation, which hits the poor the hardest … The sanctions announced over the last few days will also have a significant economic impact.”
That risk is very high. Supply chain disruptions caused by Donald Trump’s trade wars against China set inflation in motion, and it has since gone from a canter to a gallop. Inflation feeds on itself by creating inflation expectations, then pressure on price rises and higher wages.
Oil prices are almost certain to continue rising, along with metal and food prices. The critical question is how central banks will react. The US Federal Reserve, for one, does not appear willing to hold off on raising interest rates – so look for further collateral damage.
Global
financial conditions, as the IMF noted, “are set to deteriorate as
central banks in advanced economies tighten policy to fight unexpectedly
persistent inflation pressure”. Or as Georgieva and Malpass said:
“Disruptions in financial markets will continue to worsen should the
conflict persist.”
This is where the rush to apply sanctions will become really interesting. Once the impact of sanctions on market sentiment begins to manifest itself – in other words, once the “supply chain” of investment to stock markets is affected – the double-edged sword impact of sanctions will begin to sink in
This is where the rush to apply sanctions will become really interesting. Once the impact of sanctions on market sentiment begins to manifest itself – in other words, once the “supply chain” of investment to stock markets is affected – the double-edged sword impact of sanctions will begin to sink in
This is
not the end of the story, unfortunately. There is another monster
lurking beyond the horror of a hot war, the threat of a lasting cold
war, the sanctions war and the spectre of rapidly accelerating (maybe
even runaway) inflation – and that is the beast of global debt.
In an
unusually frank discussion in the IMF’s Finance and Development
publication, World Bank chief economist Carmen Reinhart and IMF director
of strategy, policy and review Ceyla Pazarbasioglu revealed just how
close the world may be to entering another debt crisis.
Their
analysis deals with emerging market and developing country debt, where
the surge has been greatest in recent times and, chillingly, they note
that “economies are entering perilous waters that evoke memories of past
debt defaults”.
Used cars cost more than a luxury flat as economic crisis and inflation hit Sri Lanka
Many emerging market and developing economies “have encountered crises at lower debt levels” than those now, they said, adding that: “Tighter monetary policies in advanced economies are poised to push up international interest rates, which tends to put pressure on currencies and heighten the odds of default.”
Heavy debt burdens are by no means limited to emerging markets. The sensitivity of the household, corporate and government sectors in advanced economies is also such that prospective (and almost certain) rises in interest rates could threaten debt crises too.
Used cars cost more than a luxury flat as economic crisis and inflation hit Sri Lanka
Many emerging market and developing economies “have encountered crises at lower debt levels” than those now, they said, adding that: “Tighter monetary policies in advanced economies are poised to push up international interest rates, which tends to put pressure on currencies and heighten the odds of default.”
Heavy debt burdens are by no means limited to emerging markets. The sensitivity of the household, corporate and government sectors in advanced economies is also such that prospective (and almost certain) rises in interest rates could threaten debt crises too.
Much of the surge in government debt
is due to fiscal stimulus designed to avert a Covid-19 economic
recession but, as the IMF noted in a recent blog, “now, the bill is
coming due. Governments face the tricky task of reducing unprecedented
debt.”
The world is obsessed with the Ukraine situation and a desire to punish Russia with economic sanctions. But sanctions in themselves can be weapons of mass destruction in causing a fallout in global economic activity. When you take a wrecking ball to a task, remember that the ball can also swing back and hit home.
Anthony Rowley is a veteran journalist specialising in Asian economic and financial affairs
The world is obsessed with the Ukraine situation and a desire to punish Russia with economic sanctions. But sanctions in themselves can be weapons of mass destruction in causing a fallout in global economic activity. When you take a wrecking ball to a task, remember that the ball can also swing back and hit home.
Anthony Rowley is a veteran journalist specialising in Asian economic and financial affairs